DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: FRI 05/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 78.7 - - 89.5 - - 94.9 - - 94.7 - - 84.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 100 - - 448 - - 482 - - 175 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 842 - - 6421 - - 11573 - - 11720 - - 45 BL Depth Hcrit 2128 - - 6832 - - 11066 - - 10459 - - 2128 Hcrit BL Top 2942 - - 8521 - - 13673 - - 13820 - - 2145 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1981 - - 4818 - - 1835 - - 1792 - - 3777 Hgt.Variab. W* 179 - - 582 - - 726 - - 520 - - 0 W* B/S 9 - - 16 - - 16 - - 9 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 7 - - 8 - - 10 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 203 - - 292 - - 298 - - 294 - - 273 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - 7 - - -9 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -9967 - - -7213 - - -3034 - - -3009 - - -12431 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12910 - - 15735 - - 16708 - - 16830 - - 14577 sfcLCL ODpotential -13419 - - -10647 - - -6030 - - -6251 - - -17684 ODpotential blCL 16361 - - 19168 - - 19703 - - 20071 - - 19829 blCL maxRH 57 - - 46 - - 44 - - 44 - - 61 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 78.7 - - 89.5 - - 94.9 - - 94.7 - - 84.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.6 - - 26.8 - - 27.3 - - 26.8 - - 27.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 77.7 - - 86.6 - - 91.9 - - 93.1 - - 87.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.5 - - 26.8 - - 27.3 - - 26.7 - - 27.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 100 - - 448 - - 482 - - 175 - - -29 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 842 - - 6421 - - 11573 - - 11720 - - 45 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98336 16 125 10 148 14 133 14 154 6 140 98336 90901 22 116 20 134 14 131 15 111 11 098 90901 85195 22 123 18 109 19 120 14 109 14 103 85195 80458 21 108 17 119 16 108 14 129 12 088 80458 76376 17 109 15 116 14 113 14 125 10 089 76376 72769 14 095 15 124 11 117 12 118 7 152 72769 69510 2 057 12 128 7 154 4 072 8 153 69510 66537 4 202 8 174 10 211 6 278 1 007 66537 63810 10 253 9 222 15 227 13 263 11 282 63810 61178 17 260 16 257 19 253 20 267 18 276 61178 58415 21 267 23 277 21 269 23 270 24 271 58415 55525 24 284 25 276 23 277 27 271 29 266 55525 52755 29 281 24 274 25 276 33 270 29 269 52755 50257 22 290 21 269 29 275 34 272 32 274 50257 48021 15 299 20 283 29 275 32 272 38 271 48021 46000 23 325 20 295 27 278 30 274 40 265 46000 44157 30 328 21 322 23 287 32 271 37 262 44157 42466 32 328 27 331 23 299 20 268 30 263 42466 40909 31 331 28 333 23 304 16 283 26 260 40909 39455 29 342 26 336 20 305 15 285 21 250 39455 38085 30 356 26 340 18 309 13 286 15 252 38085 36762 31 007 25 344 17 316 12 292 13 261 36762 35420 33 012 25 347 17 322 12 298 13 271 35420 34032 33 011 24 349 17 324 13 297 15 274 34032 32599 31 007 24 348 18 323 15 297 15 270 32599 31107 30 002 25 346 18 322 15 293 15 276 31107 29543 31 005 25 345 18 323 15 289 16 279 29543 27912 31 008 24 348 17 327 14 294 18 280 27912 26214 29 005 21 352 17 338 13 314 17 287 26214 24451 26 001 18 347 17 342 14 332 13 294 24451 22623 19 006 15 345 16 336 14 343 10 307 22623 20723 16 360 14 355 13 342 16 349 7 341 20723 18744 15 007 15 002 10 000 13 352 7 013 18744 16726 8 061 10 350 8 338 8 337 4 042 16726 14790 7 079 4 332 8*296 10*295 12 342 14790 13035 5 048 5 339 8*289 10*293 10 334 13035 11465 7 344 9 309 8 289 10 293 8 312 11465 10060 9 314 13 295 8 290 10 293 8 303 10060 8801 7 290 11*290 8 292 10 294 10 296 8801 7675 6 305 9*288 9 296 10 294 12 292 7675 6670 8 311 8 288 9 299 10 295 14 289 6670 5778 8 310 7 290 8 302 10 295 16 286 5778 4986 5 310 7 290 8 306 10 295 18 285 4986 4273 5 292 6 293 8 307 10 296 19 283 4273 3639 7 273 6 294 8 310 10 296 20 282 3639 3107 4*238 5 297 8 312 9 296 20 281 3107 2698 4*204 5 298 8 313 9 297 18 280 2698 2415 4 204 5 300 8 314 9 297 15 279 2415 2243 3 202 5 300 8 314 9 297 11*277 2243 2145 3 203 4 301 7 315 8 297 7*273 2145 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography